An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change     

Ulrike Gabriele Kobler  Martin Schmid 《水文研究》2019,33(20):2676-2690

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.  相似文献   

Influence of dissolution/reprecipitation reactions on metamorphic greenschist to amphibolite facies mica 40Ar/39Ar ages in the Longmen Shan (eastern Tibet)          下载免费PDF全文

Laura Airaghi  Clare J. Warren  Julia de Sigoyer  Pierre Lanari  Valérie Magnin 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2018,36(7):933-958

Linking ages to metamorphic stages in rocks that have experienced low‐ to medium‐grade metamorphism can be particularly tricky due to the rarity of index minerals and the preservation of mineral or compositional relicts. The timing of metamorphism and the Mesozoic exhumation of the metasedimentary units and crystalline basement that form the internal part of the Longmen Shan (eastern Tibet, Sichuan, China), are, for these reasons, still largely unconstrained, but crucial for understanding the regional tectonic evolution of eastern Tibet. In situ core‐rim ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar biotite and U–Th/Pb allanite data show that amphibolite facies conditions (~10–11 kbar, 530°C to 6–7 kbar, 580°C) were reached at 210–180 Ma and that biotite records crystallization, rather than cooling, ages. These conditions are mainly recorded in the metasedimentary cover. The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages obtained from matrix muscovite that partially re‐equilibrated during the post peak‐P metamorphic history comprise a mixture of ages between that of early prograde muscovite relicts and the timing of late muscovite recrystallization at c. 140–120 Ma. This event marks a previously poorly documented greenschist facies metamorphic overprint. This latest stage is also recorded in the crystalline basement, and defines the timing of the greenschist overprint (7 ± 1 kbar, 370 ± 35°C). Numerical models of Ar diffusion show that the difference between ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar biotite and muscovite ages cannot be explained by a slow and protracted cooling in an open system. The model and petrological results rather suggest that biotite and muscovite experienced different Ar retention and resetting histories. The Ar record in mica of the studied low‐ to medium‐grade rocks seems to be mainly controlled by dissolution–reprecipitation processes rather than by diffusive loss, and by different microstructural positions in the sample. Together, our data show that the metasedimentary cover was thickened and cooled independently from the basement prior to c. 140 Ma (with a relatively fast cooling at 4.5 ± 0.5°C/Ma between 185 and 140 Ma). Since the Lower Cretaceous, the metasedimentary cover and the crystalline basement experienced a coherent history during which both were partially exhumed. The Mesozoic history of the Eastern border of the Tibetan plateau is therefore complex and polyphase, and the basement was actively involved at least since the Early Cretaceous, changing our perspective on the contribution of the Cenozoic geology.  相似文献   

传统聚落景观基因的地理信息特征及其理解     

胡最 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(5):1083-1094

传统聚落是民族传统文化遗产的重要组成部分,对社会经济和文化建设具有重要的价值。针对现有研究缺乏探讨传统聚落景观基因（简称景观基因）蕴藏的地理信息特征及理解方法,论文从以下方面开展了深入分析：① 地理信息包含了语义描述、几何形态、属性特征、维度、时空框架、尺度、要素相互关系（空间关联）、演化过程（存在状态）等属性;② 景观基因是一种特殊的文化因子,蕴含着丰富的哲理,是认识传统聚落特征的分析方法,也是文化符号的集合;③ 景观基因包含了空间定位、载体特征、历史与文化特征等丰富的地理信息。根据前述分析结果,论文从符号化、数据挖掘、谱系分析与空间格局制图等途径系统地探讨了景观基因地理信息特征的理解方法。论文认为：在地理时空大数据与地理服务日益深化发展的背景下,结合GIS原理探讨景观基因的地理信息特征对于延伸地理信息科学的内涵,深化传统聚落的地学认识,促进人文GIS的发展具有积极的意义,今后应该继续加强相关方法探索。  相似文献   

A method for evaluating the longitudinal functional connectivity of a river–lake–marsh system and its application in China     

Yeling Liu  Baoshan Cui  Jizeng Du  Qing Wang  Shuling Yu  Wei Yang 《水文研究》2020,34(26):5278-5297

The longitudinal functional connectivity of a river–lake–marsh system (RLMS) refers to the actual water-mediated transport of material from upstream to downstream areas along a spatial gradient and is fundamental to understand hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. However, due to a lack of consensus on appropriate data and methods, the quantification of connectivity is still a challenge, especially at the catchment scale. We developed a new method to evaluate longitudinal functional connectivity based on fluxes of materials (water, sediment, and chemicals) along a RLMS. The calculation of fluxes is based on the longitudinal pattern of terrain gradient, which influences transport efficiency, and on contributions from hillslopes, which set the initial spatial template of material loading to the RLMS. We evaluate the contributions from hillslopes to RLMS based on a new modified version of the index of sediment connectivity (IC) proposed by Borselli et al. (2008) and revised by Chartin et al. (2017).We applied this method to the Baiyangdian Basin covering an area of 3.4 × 10⁴ km² in China and quantified longitudinal functional connectivity during normal, wet, and dry periods(April, July and December) in year 2016. We found that areas with good structural connectivity exhibited poor functional connectivity during the normal and dry periods. Modelling testing with discharge data from hydrological stations and measured chemicals from Baiyangdian Lake was satisfactory in test periods. We conclude that public data and Digital Elevation Model-derived information can be used to reliably map the longitudinal functional connectivity of RLMSs. The proposed method provides a useful tool for monitoring and restoring the longitudinal functional connectivity of RLMSs and our results indicate that efforts aimed at restoring functional connectivity in RLMSs should take into account landscape patterns that can greatly influence fluxes in the watershed.  相似文献   

无人机大比例尺测图像控点布设方案设计     

袁德宝  张新新  周振青  任兴达 《北京测绘》2020,(4):523-527

随着无人机技术的快速发展,无人机航空摄影测量的精度也大大改善,以无人机为平台低空摄影测量大比例尺地图成为可能。本文以旋翼无人机搭载非测量型相机,通过布设不同数量像控点进行分析和研究,得到无人机摄影测量在农村地区像控点布设规律。结果证明在合理像控点布设的情况下,无人机测图数字成果空中三角测量、平面和高程精度均可满足1∶500、1∶1000、1∶2000大比例尺地形测图的精度要求。  相似文献   

Satellite image analysis using crowdsourcing data for collaborative mapping: current and opportunities     

Wei Su  Xiaodong Zhang 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2020,13(6):645-660

ABSTRACT

Researchers are continually finding new applications of satellite images because of the growing number of high-resolution images with wide spatial coverage. However, the cost of these images is sometimes high, and their temporal resolution is relatively coarse. Crowdsourcing is an increasingly common source of data that takes advantage of local stakeholder knowledge and that provides a higher frequency of data. The complementarity of these two data sources suggests there is great potential for mutually beneficial integration. Unfortunately, there are still important gaps in crowdsourced satellite image analysis by means of crowdsourcing in areas such as land cover classification and emergency management. In this paper, we summarize recent efforts, and discuss the challenges and prospects of satellite image analysis for geospatial applications using crowdsourcing. Crowdsourcing can be used to improve satellite image analysis and satellite images can be used to organize crowdsourced efforts for collaborative mapping.  相似文献   

数字正射影像结合LiDAR数据在山区测绘中的应用     

严慧敏 《测绘通报》2020,(1):115-119

随着信息化社会的到来，现代水利测绘已经由传统测绘向信息化测绘发展，无人机技术应用于测绘行业推进了信息化测绘进程。本文探讨了如何有效利用无人机技术解决测绘领域在山区遇到的问题。固定翼无人机能及时获取地面数字正射影像数据，捕获裸露地面的平面和高程，但是无法获取植被覆盖下的地表高程信息，因此，本文通过机载激光雷达获取植被覆盖下的LiDAR点云数据；将二者数据相结合，再通过EPS软件生成三维地表模型，可以快速获取任何测区地物和地形数据，不仅提高了工作效率，还降低了外业劳动强度。  相似文献   

旋翼无人机载激光雷达在农村不动产权籍调查中的应用     

吉绪发 《测绘通报》2020,(7):152

我国越来越重视农村的发展，目前各地都在积极开展农村不动产权籍调查工作，该工作时间紧迫，对数据精度要求较高。在农村不动产权籍调查中，本文针对传统外业全野外调绘所带来的低效率问题，提出了利用旋翼无人机载激光雷达进行调绘的方法，并且通过实例验证了该方法相较于传统测绘方式能够提高测绘的效率且测绘精度符合最终要求。  相似文献   

微型无人机在“现代摄影测量实习”课程教学改革中的应用     

胡腾  康志忠  杨红磊 《测绘与空间地理信息》2020,(1):8-9

“现代摄影测量实习”是中国地质大学(北京)土地科学技术学院测绘工程专业的重要实习课程,直接关系到学生的测绘技能培养。本文以笔者的教学实践为基础,从教学内容、教学方法、实践过程等方面探讨“现代摄影测量实习”实践中的教学改革问题,以帮助测绘工程专业学生获得良好的现代摄影测量技能,提高其就业与科研核心竞争力。  相似文献